Feed Strategy - May 2019 - 15

FeedStrategy ❙ 15

A significant amount of China's pork comes from small, local farms. Grigorev_Vladimir | iStock.com

A 'negative' for feed
"Domestic sow and live pig inventories are declining sharply," says
Angela Zhang, head of the business intelligence division at IQC
Insights.
"Due to the negative influence
of ASF, most of the domestic
major pig breeding companies
have lowered their prospective
revenues in 2018, compared with
their earlier estimation made in
the first half of 2018," she says.
"It indicates they could suffer
financial strain for production
capacity expanding into 2019,
which is a negative factor for the
feed industry."
Public company Chying AgroPastoral Group, for example,
recently announced it is unable
to afford enough feed for its pigs,
which has also led to higher-thanexpected death rates.
"ASF is now the biggest issue
in China and it will significantly
reduce the supply this year, maybe
next year as well," notes Chenjun
Pan, senior analyst at Rabobank.
"If pork production drops significantly, the demand for feed will
also drop. But feed demand for
May 2019 ❙ www.WATTAgNet.com

China's national pork consumption
57,500

57,194

57,000
x1,000 metric tons

China's domestic pork production is extremely important -
imported pork only represented 2
to 3% of the total market in 2018
- but the country's producers
are facing a variety of other
challenges.

56,500
56,000

55,725

55,668

55,500

54,980

55,000

54,812

54,500
54,000
53,500

2014

2015

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture

2016
Year

2017

2018

Chinese pork consumption saw a slight increase in 2018, after three
years of consumption declines.

China's 2018 meat consumption
Poultry

15%
Beef

8%
5% Mutton
Pork

65%

7%

Other

Source: Aski Consulting

Pork remains China's most popular meat, followed in a distant
second by poultry.
other sectors like poultry and beef
cattle will increase. So, there's a
little bit of an offset on that but,
overall, the impact on the feed
industry is negative."
However, Pan says ASF will
only impact the market in the
short term, e.g. over the next
two to three years. Longer term,
there are other factors to consider

as China's pork consumption
continues to slide.
"Even if we didn't have
ASF, the consumption will
drop slowly," she says. "There
is no very solid reason for pork
consumption to increase."
Per capita pork consumption
declined in recent years, shrinking
almost 6% from historical highs


http://www.iStock.com http://www.WATTAgNet.com

Feed Strategy - May 2019

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Feed Strategy - May 2019

Feed Strategy - May 2019
Contents
In the Mix
Industry Happenings
African swine fever: What feed manufacturers need to know
Year of the Pig: A look at China’s declining pork consumption
Asia’s poultry producers expect strong results in 2019
Add value to piglet diets with molasses
Marketing nutrition by blaming other products
How feed additives can reduce greenhouse gas emissions
Americans seek more protein, but not all animal based
What is the best heifer-weaning index?
VICTAM International a one-stop show for animal feed processors
Products
Advertisers’ Index
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - CT1
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - CT2
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - Feed Strategy - May 2019
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - Cover2
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - Contents
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - In the Mix
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - Industry Happenings
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - African swine fever: What feed manufacturers need to know
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - 5
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - 6
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - 7
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - 8
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - 9
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - 10
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - 11
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - 12
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - 13
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - Year of the Pig: A look at China’s declining pork consumption
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - 15
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - 16
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - 17
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - 18
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - 19
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - Asia’s poultry producers expect strong results in 2019
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - 21
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - 22
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - 23
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - Add value to piglet diets with molasses
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - 25
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - 26
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - 27
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - Marketing nutrition by blaming other products
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - 29
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - How feed additives can reduce greenhouse gas emissions
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - 31
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - Americans seek more protein, but not all animal based
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - 33
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - 34
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - 35
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - What is the best heifer-weaning index?
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - 37
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - 38
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - 39
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - VICTAM International a one-stop show for animal feed processors
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - 41
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - 42
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - Products
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - Advertisers’ Index
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - Cover3
Feed Strategy - May 2019 - Cover4
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