Feed Strategy - June 2018 - 40
40 ❙ FeedStrategy
turn, demand began to weaken, with reported sales only
rising due to new members joining the association.
In 2012-13, the first real impact on the poultry industry
of higher levels of imported broiler meat began to be felt,
and the association cites imported chicken meat as continuing to be the biggest threat to the sector. In a double
hit, its impact began to be felt at the same times as the agricultural sector faced the worst drought in its history.
Statistics from the country's Department of
Agricultural Economics reveal that, in 2016, South Africa
imported 528,506 tons of chicken meat, up from the
437,374 tons in 2015. While imports over the first half of
2017 were 5 percent lower than the same period of 2016,
they were, nevertheless, 24 percent higher than the fiveyear average for the period January to June.
Where the poultry sector is concerned, however, difficulties did not stop there. Demand was further hit last
year due to outbreaks of avian influenza and resulting in
millions of birds being killed. Up until November of last
year, the sector recorded 68 outbreaks, with 21 of these
outbreaks occurring on commercial operations.
Avian influenza is thought to have resulted in lost sales
of layer feed amounting to 81,000 tons last year, but the
biggest threat to feed sales remains that imported broiler
meat, with attributed losses being three to four times
higher than those attributable to avian influenza.
The association also notes that the biggest contributing
South Africa's poultry feed sales
by sector 2016-18
Million metric tons
SOUTH AFRICAN FEED
*Estimate; ** Forecast
Source: Animal Feed Manufacturers Association
After declining in 2017, demand for broiler and
layer feed is expected to grow in 2018. However,
for broiler breeders, decreasing sales are expected
factor to the continuous downward trend in demand for
broiler breeder feed is also broiler meat imports, followed
by better efficiencies, with only a small impact attributable to avian influenza.
The feed sector is hopeful that 2018 may be more
positive. While the challenges of imports and avian influenza have not gone away, overall poultry production
has been forecast to grow by 4.78 percent this year, with
growth expected in broiler meat and egg production.
Demand for broiler breeder feed, however, is expected to
continue declining. ■
www.WATTAgNet.com ❙ June 2018